2012 Baseball Writer’s Results

After the votes were counted and the dust cleared from the number-crunching, the name of Barry Larkin was the only sent home.  The former All-Star shortstop of the Cincinnati Reds collected 86.4% of the vote.  Congratulations to Mr. Larkin on this most hallowed of achievements. 

Listed below are the percentage totals racked up by each player on the writer’s ballot.  Given that the Veteran’s Committee elected former Cubs third baseman Ron Santo, Barry won’t go into Cooperstown alone.  No other player on the writer’s ballot received 75% of the vote–the necessary total for induction–as Jack Morris, former Tigers ace, came in second in voting with 66.7%.  The list that follows give the player’s percentage received by the writers beside the prediction I made for each player last month in parenthesis.

Barry Larkin 86.4(70.5%), Jack Morris 66.7 (57.7%), Jeff Bagwell 56.0 (58.2%), Lee Smith 50.6 (49%), Tim Raines 48.7 (41.4%), Alan Trammell 36.8 (26.8%), Edgar Martinez 36.5 (38.6%), Fred McGriff 23.9 (22.2%), Larry Walker 22.9 (25%), Mark GcGwire 19.5 (21.8%), Don Mattingly 17.8 (15.1%), Dale Murphy 14.5 (14.4%), Rafael Palmeiro 12.6 (19.3%), Bernie Williams 9.6 (18.8%), Juan Gonzalez 4.0 (6.2%), Vinny Castilla 1.0 (3.6%), Tim Salmon 0.9 (2.6%), Bill Mueller 0.7 (0.7%), Brad Radke 0.3 (0.2%), Javy Lopez 0.2 (3.8%), Eric Young 0.2 (0.2%), Ruben Sierra 0.0 (0.7%), Brian Jordan 0.0 (0.2%), Terry Mulholland 0.0 (0.2%), Jeromy Burnitz 0.0 (0.0%), Phil Nevin 0.0 (0.0%) and Tony Womack 0.0 (0.0%)

There were a number of shockers for me in this year’s ballot.  I expected, given the lack of star-caliber first-timers on the ballot, that many of the players would see a boost in their percentages.  This happened to many but others either fell off a tad or didn’t quite get the support I figured they would.  Larkin’s 86% seems a bit too excessive, but since his company on the ballot was rather weak, it was his year to make it.  Although Larkin was a terrific player, the writers should not have elevated him to 86% simply because the company he kept on the ballot was suspect.  When the voters do that, they in essence dilute the Hall of Fame, electing the loftiest player among a group of stars, not because he is worthy of any accolade but because he is perceived as better than the rest.  Had Barry had to compete with the likes of Biggio, Piazza, Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and Schilling, like the holdovers will next year, Larkin almost certainly wouldn’t have netted 80% of the vote and probably not the 75% needed for enshrinement.

Another shock was the steep ascent of Jack Morris.  Jack was a good pitcher, noted more for his big game performances than anything else, who was a solid innings-eater but hardly a dominating pitcher.  The strongest case for Morris is that he won the most games of any pitcher during the 1980s–every other decade leader is in the Hall of Fame.  But if Morris should make the Hall of Fame, his ERA will be the highest of all enshrined.  Although Morris racked up innings, he pales in comparison to some names that will make the ballot in upcoming years–true Hall of Famers like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens (at least the numbers).  Morris isn’t in their class–not by a long shot.

Jeff Bagwell saw his support spike, as well it should.  He was the greatest all-round first baseman of his time, which is saying a lot.  He played in the rock-’em-sock-’em 1990s and had such stars as Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff, Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro to contend with.  The 1990s is easily the best decade in the game’s history as far as star-caliber first basemen are concerned and Baggy was the cream of the crop.  Not only could he slug on par with his peers, but he was also swift, fielded his position well and was an exemplary sportsman.  He will make the Hall of Fame eventually.

I was expecting support for Bernie Williams and a lesser jump in percentage for Alan Trammell, but the reverse was true.  Now that Barry Larkin is in the Hall of Fame, there seems to be little reason to keep Trammell out.  The two played the same position and their career numbers are in quite close proximity in all regards.  Also, both men led their team’s to World Championships and did, unfortunately for them, spend an ample amount of time on the DL later in their careers.  The two shortstops are really quite comparable.  No rational person can justify why Larkin received 86% of the vote while Trammell, almost his equal, netted under 40%.  Bernie has always been sort of an unsung Yankee, shadowed by Jeter, Posada and Rivera.  He was a fine player and I expect him to remain on the ballot but never make the Hall of Fame, lest the Veteran’s Committee elects him in in 2048.

Some players my estimations were rather close.  Lee Smith and Bagwell received about the same support I imagined they would get, as did Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff.  Tim Raines, a well-rounded talent, shot up a little higher than I expected, as did Mattingly, but Palmeiro and McGwire didn’t see the slight raises I envisioned for them–the steroid cloud will linger.  My prediction for Dale Murphy was 0.1 percentage points off and I thought that Juan Gonzalez would see enough support this year, given a weak freshman class, to be retained for the 2013 ballot, and then be knocked off that year, but the former Rangers slugger was removed from the ballot this year with an under 5% showing.  As I expected, Bernie Williams was the only first-timer to get the required 5% to remain on the ballot, so the other first-timer’s names will not be seen on the 2013 ballot.